Saturday, March 14, 2009

LifeWay Foods

Thanks to Hilary for finding this article
If you can't beat 'em, buy 'em. Actually, come to think of it, even if you can beat them, if the price is right, you might as well buy them anyway.

That seems to be the thinking at Lifeway Foods (Nasdaq: LWAY), the little Illinois maker of a delicious, yoghurt-like beverage known as kefir (pronounced "KEEF-er," like the star of 24,?Kiefer Sutherland). In a replay of a gambit first implemented in 2006, Lifeway announced yesterday that it's buying its biggest rival in the kefir market, Pennsylvania's privately held Fresh Made Foods.

Now at first glance, the deal may not look propitious for Lifeway shareholders. The company will shell out $14.05 million for its new prize, including an up-front payment of $10 million. The problem is, Lifeway doesn't actually have $10 million. In fact, based on its most recent financials, Lifeway taps out at $6.2 million in cash and short-term marketable securities, and carries $3.2 million in long-term debt. Buying Fresh Made will, therefore, put Lifeway even deeper in hock.

But that doesn't mean it's a bad deal. For one thing, Lifeway generates plenty of free cash flow to finance the deal. Secondly, think back to when Lifeway made its last big acquisition: the 2006 purchase of then-archrival Helios. Then, it paid $8 million to acquire $5 million worth of Helios' annual sales, a 1.6 multiple. In contrast, it's paying a 1.4 multiple this time to acquire Fresh Made's $10 million in annual sales.

Let's compare cows to cows
Now I know what you're thinking: Even a 1.4 sales multiple is a pretty steep price to pay, right? I mean, other players that dabble in the dairy space sell for way less than that. Kraft (NYSE: KFT) shares fetch a multiple of just 0.9, and General Mills (NYSE: GIS) commands a multiple of 1.3.

But here's the thing: Neither of these giants is growing anywhere near as fast as the kefir market in general, or Lifeway in particular. Between new sales expansions with retail partners Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), and Target (NYSE: TGT), Wall Street expects Lifeway to grow its profits at nearly 25% per year over the next five years, meaning Lifeway's growth trajectory has more in common with fast-growing Hansen Natural (Nasdaq: HANS) than with traditional dairy-products rivals.

Foolish takeaway
Which brings me to my final point. Hansen shares boast a 3.2 sales multiple for their growth prospects. Faster-growing Lifeway sells for a 3.3 sales multiple -- and now it's about to jack up those sales by taking on Fresh Made's revenue.

So what's my take on the deal? Mm, mm, good.

Want to know more about Lifeway or kefir? Read about both in: I Love Lifeway Foods Small Cap, Big Potential Fool on Call: Lifeway's Corporate Cotillion

And if you like investing in small-cap companies that dominate their business niches while rolling up the competition, do yourself a favor and take advantage of our 30-day free trial offer at Motley Fool Hidden Gems. I can think of three such firms that we've recommended just off the top of my head -- and two of 'em, I like even better than Lifeway. Click here to see them all now.

The Motley Fool is dedicated to Educating, Amusing, and Enriching all visitors to their website at http://www.fool.com/index.htm?ref=Yo.

Friday, February 27, 2009

Why You Should Sell

Why you should sell
You should always sell when you have a better place to put your money -- and today, a host of superior companies are on sale. The takeaway, then, is to recognize when realization utility may take root, take a sober view of your holdings, and take advantage of this down market to upgrade your portfolio. Ten years from now, you'll be very glad you did.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Immucor Inc. (BLUD): Zacks Rank Buy
Bill Wilton
Friday December 26, 2008, 1:00 am EST

Immucor Inc.
Immucor Inc.(NasdaqGS: BLUD - News) recently reported a company record for net income in a quarter and completed an acquisition. Earnings are showing solid growth for next year and are traded at a fair value.
Company Description
Immucor is an international in vitro diagnostic company dedicated to automating manual processes in the hospital/donor laboratory. They develop, manufacture, and sell products used by hospital blood banks, clinical laboratories, and large blood-donor centers to test, detect, and identify certain properties of human blood prior to patient transfusion.
Immucor's instruments utilize patented solid phase technology reagents to perform ABO grouping tests, RH typing, antibody screening, and platelet cross-matching.
Record First Quarter Results
On Oct 1 Immucor announced one of the best quarters in company history that included revenues of $73.2 million, a 15% year-over-year increase. About 75% of the revenue growth came from the U.S.
Net income for the quarter was $20 million, the highest in company history. The figure translates to earnings of 28 cents per share. Wall Street was expecting 23 cents per share, making it the third consecutive earnings surprise.
Dr. De Chirico, President and CEO said, 'All-time highs were achieved in revenues, and net income for the quarter as our strategies to grow our business and the execution of our plan once again generated outstanding results.'
Growth With Reasonable Valuations
The current consensus for next year, fiscal 2010, is $1.16. The forecast represents a year-over-year increase of 19%. The current long-term growth rate is 20%, which brings the relatively high P/E ratio of 23.4 to a PEG ratio of 1.3.
Acquisition Complete
Immucor completed a previously announced deal to acquire BioArray Sollutions, a molecular diagnostic company specializing in blood transfusions. The cash only deal was valued at $108.2 million.
Shares of BLUD have been bouncing off of support at $22 per share. The level has been tested several times and is holding well.

IMMUCOR

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises
The fiscal second-quarter consensus earnings estimate for Immucor, Inc. (Nasdaq: BLUD - News) has risen by a penny over the past 30 days to 21 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is even more bullish at 24 cents per share. The reagent manufacturer has topped expectations for 3 consecutive quarters by an average margin of 4 cents per share. Immucor is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Jan 7, after the close of trading.

Friday, November 7, 2008

How to Find Dirt Cheap Value Stocks

How to Find Dirt Cheap Value Stocks

November 6, 2008

The market has been all over the place lately -- down 700 points here, up 300 points there -- and all of that volatility is leaving tremendous value opportunities in its wake.
Consider the cases of Transocean (NYSE: RIG) and Noble (NYSE: NE): two solidly profitable oil and gas drillers trading with price-to-earnings ratios of 5, both more than 50% off their 52-week highs. If you need a new energy stock for your portfolio, you could do worse than to start your research here.
It's opportunities like this that value investors drool over. After all, the chance to buy dirt cheap dream stocks only comes around so often.
But knowing how to spot the right value stocks in a down market is often more difficult than it sounds -- because there's a reason the market doesn't like this company right now. It's your job to figure out why, and whether the dislike is reasonable.
And one of the best ways I've found to identify promising deep value stocks is PYAD.
What's PYAD? Developed by our friends at Fool UK in 1999, PYAD is a strategy that minimizes downside risk while maximizing upside potential. To this end, it looks for the P, the Y, the A , and the D:
P/E ratio: less than two-thirds of the market's average.
Yield: 50% higher than the market average.
Assets: price-to-book ratio below 1x.
Debt: manageable amount, preferably none.
A stock trading at a steep discount to the market and below the book value of its assets has already taken some tough punches -- and it could also be a sign that the worst is over.
But just because the market has stopped beating up on a stock doesn't mean it's ready to make nice and come to its senses. That could take time. And that's why having a healthy dividend yield is important. In essence, you're getting paid to wait for the rebound.
And finally, low or no debt reduces risk. After all, debt holders need to be paid before common stockholders, and high interest expenses can make earnings more volatile. Stocks saddled with heavy debt loads are not usually worth waiting on.
All of these together suggest a stock might be an excellent deep value play.
Right, but does PYAD work? Out of curiosity, I used PYAD to look at U.S. stocks capitalized over $200 million on Oct. 31, 2002 -- near the last bear market's bottom. Of the 11 stocks that met all four criteria, nine of them are in positive territory today, including Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI), up 247%, and Xcel Energy, up 121%.
Those are pretty good returns for six years -- especially when they include the past few months.
So which stocks would fit the PYAD criteria today? Here are a few of the contenders.
Company
P/E Ratio (ttm)
Dividend Yield
Price to Book
Interest Coverage (EBITDA/Interest Coverage)
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX)
3.96
6.1%
0.7
15.2
Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR)
5.9
3.9%
0.5
8.2
Tesoro (NYSE: TSO)
9.67
3.8%
0. 5
5.4
Alcoa (NYSE: AA)
5.65
5.5%
0.6
10.9
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard and Poor's.ttm = trailing 12 months. EBITDA = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Of course, no screen, including PYAD, can tell you definitively whether you should buy a stock; they just provide starting points for further research. In this market, for instance, investors would be wise to take a very close look at a company's assets to gauge the risk of write-downs before making an investment.
And the next step, as it is with any potential value play, is doing a valuation to determine the company's intrinsic value. If a PYAD stock's true value is well above its current market price, you can sit back, relax, and let the juicy dividends flow in while you wait for the market to come around.
Time to value hunt? The beauty of PYAD is its simple ability to identify stocks with limited downside. I think Warren Buffett, who famously quipped that rule No. 1 in investing is "Never lose money," would approve.
A strong company with limited downside selling at a discount to its intrinsic value is what advisors Philip Durrell and Ron Gross look for at our Motley Fool Inside Value investing service -- and in this market they're finding plenty.

Chesapeake's Not Choking

October 31, 2008

Apparently, natural gas prices collapsed in the third quarter. You'd hardly know it from Chesapeake Energy's (NYSE: CHK) quarterly results.
Natural gas price realizations -- industry jargon for the effective sales price -- came in at $8.02/mcfe (per thousand cubic feet) for the third quarter. That's down 2% from the June quarter. Production levels were also roughly the same, resulting in operating cash flow of $1.4 billion, compared to $1.44 billion previously.
Confused? Well, the secret sauce is called a swap. Swaps and collars are derivatives employed by E&Ps to hedge their cash flow in case commodities suddenly crash. Practically everyone, from Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB), utilizes at least a moderate amount of hedges. Only firms with the most underleveraged balance sheets, such as Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY), are able to largely go without. Those price realizations I mentioned before include the effect of cash-settled derivatives.
The giveaway that something went sour in the quarter is the mark-to-market gain of over $2.8 billion on unrealized hedges -- the ones that are still being carried on the books. This non-cash gain pumped up Chesapeake's net income figure, which, as a result, is pretty much useless for analytical purposes. This is why we generally pay closer attention to cash flow rather than earnings in E&P land.
So hedges are one thing protecting Chesapeake's caboose. Monetization is another maneuver available to muddle through this morose period. In the third quarter, the company completed about $7.5 billion transactions, from BP's (NYSE: BP) Woodford Shale purchase to Plains Exploration & Production's (NYSE: PXP) Haynesville Shale farm-in. Chesapeake is looking to execute more deals in the near term and, so far, sounds confident in its ability to close on them.
These monetizations might smack of deleveraging desperation were they not so darn lucrative. Through the first nine months of this year, Chesapeake sold undeveloped leasehold for $3.6 billion. That's nearly five times the firm's cost basis. There's something to be said for the long-term cash stream that a drilling program provides, but as with respectable ATP Oil & Gas (Nasdaq: ATPG), I see nothing subpar about converting some of that future value into cash today -- especially when credit is tight and you've got as deep a development pipeline as Chesapeake does.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

November Meeting

Reminder: The November meeting date was changed to December 4th, 2008. There will be no meeting in December. Please bring your Nov. and Dec. monthly investment at the December meeting.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

FDIC INSURANCE UPDATE

As you are probably aware, there have been additional increases to the FDIC insurance limits for non-interest bearing checking accounts.
Effective October 14, 2008 the FDIC will provide full FDIC deposit insurance coverage for non-interest bearing transaction deposit accounts. Like the other recent increases, this provision also expires on December 31, 2009. Recent media reports seem to indicate that the increase only applies to business accounts. This is not the case. While businesses will definitely be the group that benefits the greatest from this increase, the coverage is available for both personal and non-personal accounts.

What this means is that the FDIC will insure, dollar-for-dollar, the amount of money that a customer has in a non-interest bearing account without applying the $250,000 limit (in other words, unlimited insurance). The FDIC is still in the process of updating EDIE with this most recent change. Until that change is implemented, you can either explain to the customer that EDIE does not reflect the change, or you can exclude these types of accounts from the EDIE calculations. When you use EDIE it will tell you if the change has not yet been finalized. If it does not tell you then you should it has been corrected.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Immucor Beats Ests, Stays a Buy

Immucor Beats Ests, Stays a Buy
Tuesday October 14, 12:49 pm ET By Tom Park

Immucor, Inc. (NasdaqGS: BLUD - News) makes automated systems and reagents used in the testing of human blood prior to transfusion. The Norcross, Georgia-based company reported first-quarter earnings that beat our estimate by $0.05 on sales that also exceeded our forecast. The additional worldwide placements of Galileo continue to help drive Immucor's growth.
The acquisition of BioArray Solutions is expected to be significantly dilutive over the next several years. Management revised its fiscal 2009 guidance. However, although initially under pressure after placing instruments, gross margins are expected to regain momentum from the eventual growth in reagent sales, manufacturing efficiencies, and price increases. The acquisition is expected to transform Immucor into a leader in molecular diagnostic systems for blood transfusions. We rate the stock a Buy.
At its current price of $23.93 per share, BLUD is trading at roughly 25x our fiscal 2009 earnings estimate of $0.95 per share, which is at a premium to the group multiple of roughly 22x. Although continuing to grow, revenue may fall below expectations due to lower than anticipated sales from the customer loyalty program and Europe. We believe the stock is appropriately valued at roughly 33x fiscal 2009 EPS estimate. Our target price moves to $31.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Lifeway Foods Reports Record Third Quarter 2008 Revenues

Lifeway Foods Reports Record Third Quarter 2008 Revenues

October 9, 9:15 am ET
- Total consolidated sales for the third quarter rose 15% to $11,270,000 in 2008 from $9,817,000 in 2007.

MORTON GROVE, Ill., Oct. 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Lifeway Foods, Inc., (Nasdaq: LWAY - News), makers of a nutritious, probiotic dairy beverage called Kefir, announced today for the third quarter ended September 30, 2008, total consolidated sales increased 15% to approximately $11,270,000 from $9,817,000 during the same period a year ago.
Key quarterly highlights:
-- Sales via Costco, other new retail channels adding to growth.
-- Strong initial sales of Kefir Wellness Snack Bars now available in
Kroger outlets and online.
-- Cost of milk declining, down approximately 25% compared with third
quarter of 2007.
-- Lifeway's balance sheet remains strong, funding all growth and
operations from internally generated cash flow.
Julie Smolyansky, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "We are extremely pleased with our third quarter sales. September was a record month for us, with about 40% of the quarter's shipments occurring in that month. In addition to sales growth from our regular channels and products, in the third quarter we began shipping to Costco locations in the Midwest, and the results exceeded our expectations. This should provide a nice springboard to expand to other regions."
Smolyansky also noted that the first shipments of our new Kefir Wellness Snack Bars to several hundred Kroger stores began in the third quarter. "These probiotic packed snack bars are a great extension of our award winning Kefir beverages, which due to the long shelf life, allows us to penetrate a whole new set of distribution channels not previously offered by our traditional perishable lines," she said. "We have since launched our first online store at http://onlinestore.lifeway.net/ where our customers can now order the Kefir Wellness bars direct from our warehouse."
Smolyansky announced that Lifeway has begun to distribute four varieties of its 32 ounce Low Fat Organic Kefir -- Organic Blueberry, Organic Pomegranate-Acai, Organic Plain, and Organic Strawberries 'n Cream -- through Giant Eagle, the major regional grocery chain with more than 200 locations in Ohio, western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Maryland.
Edward Smolyansky, Chief Financial Officer, noted that milk prices have dropped significantly in recent months, which should reduce pressures on Lifeway's margins.
"Third quarter 2008 milk prices remained much lower compared to the same period in 2007," he said, "which gave us the flexibility to more aggressively promote our products in the second half of the quarter, which is evident in the recent trend increase in demand. In addition, October milk prices have since plummeted to 16 month lows not seen since March 2007, and should provide further cost relief in the fourth quarter."
Edward Smolyansky said that Lifeway remains financially strong, with both its operations and expansion programs 100% self-financed.
"We do not require short term credit, which puts us in a great position to continue to invest in our product lines and increase our market position going forward giving us a competitive advantage in the current tough economic climate," he said.
About Lifeway Foods
Lifeway, recently named Fortune Small Business' 49th Fastest Growing Small Business, is America's leading supplier of the cultured dairy product known as kefir. Lifeway Kefir is a dairy beverage that contains Lifeway's exclusive 10 Live and Active probiotic cultures. While most regular yogurt only contains two or three of these "friendly" cultures, Lifeway kefir products offer more nutritional benefits. Lifeway offers 12 different flavors of its Kefir beverage, Organic Kefir and SoyTreat (a soy based kefir). Lifeway recently introduced a series of innovative new products such as pomegranate kefir, Greek-style kefir, a children's line of organic kefir products called ProBugs (TM) in a no-spill pouch in kid-friendly flavors like Orange Creamy Crawler and Sublime Slime Lime, and a line of organic whole milk kefir. Lifeway also produces a line of products marketed in US Hispanic communities, called La Fruta, Drinkable Yogurt (yogurt drinks distinct from kefir). In addition to its line of Kefir products, the company produces a variety of cheese products and recently introduced a line of organic pudding called It's Pudding!

Monday, October 6, 2008

Immucor Q1 profit rises

Immucor Q1 profit rises
Atlanta Business Chronicle
Immucor Q2 profit rises 15%
Immucor acquires BioArray Solutions
Immucor sets record profit in fiscal 2008
Immucor Inc. hit record quarterly profitability and revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2009.
The Norcross, Ga.-based blood reagent systems maker had net income of $20 million and earnings of 28 cents a share, compared with net income of $17.8 million and earnings of 25 cents a share in the first quarter of fiscal 2008.
Revenue increased 15.2 percent to a record $73.2 million, boosted by $7.3 million from price increases in the United States.
"We are very pleased with our record quarterly financial results and the number of Echo [instruments] orders received in North America," said Gioacchino De Chirico, president and CEO. "... All-time highs were achieved in revenues, and net income for the quarter as our strategies to grow our business and the execution of our plan once again generated outstanding results."

Friday, September 26, 2008

September 25th Investment Club Minutes

September 25th Investment Club Minutes
Meeting at Danita's Compound

Present: Shelia, Susan But, Susan Burr, Danita, Tina, Karen, Carol Frihart, Helen, Lisa H, Hiliary

Absent: Carol Fran, Lisa A, Julia

These are dramatic times….. Lisa H

Consumer Group ( Carol Frihart, Karen) gave their power point presentation on their stock selections. Their selections were influenced by the current state of the economy. They decided to focus on things that people still needed to spend money on – food, clothing, and shelter -- for after you pass away J ). Actually they looked at end of life services ( funerals, cremation etc). The decision to look at End of Life services was influenced by the number of aging baby boomers and the fact that it was a necessary “evil” (service) J

Difficult to identify stocks that were A rated that were in our price range.

Campbell’s – food products – carries a number of popular food brands that are either #1 or #2 in various food categories. Rated a B++ .

Aeropostale – clothing store – 10% increase in same store sales. However, may have topped out and may be difficult to sustain sales in light of economy and kids having less disposable income.

Service Corporation International – End of Life services. A leader in the industry. Shares were very inexpensive at less the $9.00 a share. People were not as enthusiastic about this stock.

Karen also informally presented Gamestop – (sells new and used video games) as another option. A leader in the industry ( Electronic stores) with a strong recommendation to buy from the analyst,

Hiliary then presented updates on
Unum – insurance industry. – recently ranked #5 on the 2008InformationWeek 500 for its product and service platform – Simply Unum, which was launched nationwide in 2008. Stock price has increased from $21.41 in July to $25.69 in September. People were impressed with its gain despite the economy and stock market. Shelia had commented that she had already purchased some shares after Hiliary had presented in July.
Amsurg - Operates ambulatory surgery centers. It was listed as one of the Top 5 Volume Stocks for Sept 19. July’s price $26.75 / Sept’s price $26.97.

Motion made by Susan But to purchase 20 shares of Campbells and Unum. All members present voted in favor of the purchase. Susan Burr shared that we had not purchased stock since February and we had a substantial amount of cash in our account.

Susan Burrthen asked for feedback about the Blog ( bucksforbabes19) and asked if people were getting their email notifications when updates were available. Susan asked everyone to take responsibility for a stock and send her updates to be posted to the blog. People signed up or were assigned the following:

Applied Materials – Lisa
Chesapeake – Tina
GE – Susan But
Immuncor – Susan Burr
Merck – Helen
Lifeway, Unum – Hiliary
Walt Disney – Carol Fri
Oracle – Danita
Synovis – Lisa A
Cisco – Carol Fran
Aon – Shelia
Campbell’s - Karen

Send your updates to Susan Burr who is serving as “gatekeeper” for the Blog. This is to ensure that outsiders cannot post anything to our blog.

Next meeting is October 30th. Danita had a speaker lineup to speak on Trusts, but unfortunately that person changed jobs and can no longer speak. She and Shelia will try to find another speaker for October. If they can’t, they will give a presentation on “How to run a Meeting” based on the presentation they heard at the last rotary club meeting.

Purchase of Stock

We purchased:
20 shares of CPB: Campbells Soup at $38.23 Total $764.78
20 shares of UNM: Unum at $26.619 Total $532.38

STOCK ASSIGNMENTS

Applied Materials: Lisa H
AON: Sheila
Immucor: Susan Burr
Chesapeake: Tina
Cisco: Carol Frank
GE: Susan But
Walt Disney: Carol Fri
Lifeway: Hilary
Merck: Helen
Oracle: Danita
Synovis: Lisa A
Campbells: Karen
Unum: Hilary

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Oracle to sell computer hardware for first time

Oracle to sell computer hardware for first time
SAN FRANCISCO - Oracle is expanding into the computer hardware business in an effort to make its database software run more efficiently.

CEO Larry Ellison unveiled his company's plans to sell a "database machine" in a Wednesday presentation at an Oracle customer conference that attracted nearly 43,000 people. It marks the first time in Oracle's 31-year history that the company has added hardware to its product line.
The machine, which is being manufactured and maintained by Hewlett-Packard Co., is designed to enable large companies to fetch information stored on databases more quickly. Oracle is the world's largest seller of database software.